Myth – when short and long term interest rates are equal, a recession is imminent

September 7, 2016

It’s no secret that the best you can get in a short term high interest savings account is 1% or less.   It’s also clear that many countries in the world are paying negative interest rates on their 3yr or greater government bonds. Historically the yield (or rate of return) on holding bonds increases as the holding period (duration) increases.   This is still true in Canada and the US but not in Switzerland, Japan, France, Italy, Germany and a number of other countries. So in many countries the “yield curve” which compares rates of return for different holding periods is flattening or inverting. It has been thought that this is the precursor to a recession – but not so fast says this author.

Link to article.

ON THE OCCASION OF SIMULTANEOUS NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS IN THE DOW, NASDAQ AND THE S&P 500  (AUGUST 12, 2016): “All the money that has ever been “lost” in all the temporary equity market declines of all time has now been returned—albeit to other people: long-term investors with faith in the future, patience, and the discipline to continue working their long-term plan. The tragedy of pessimism is once again complete.” Nick Murray

Is the Economy Ever Completely Unstable?

April 17, 2015

Understanding the difference between market price and the true value of a business is the key to success in long term investing and economic instability is may only be in the mind of the financial journalist.  Let’s examine this by considering, “Would you ever stop wanting to buy toothpaste?”

The content for this article is summarized from an article by Nick Murray so I can’t and won’t take credit for this explanation – I’ll just try to keep it brief!

Toothpaste along with financial services, shipping of goods, car insurance, groceries, manufacturing and distribution of computers, cleaning supplies etc. are all products we purchase regularly regardless what the economy does. How much we purchase may vary but never that we will purchase. These services and products are provided to us by some of the best managed businesses on the plant – many of which are considered US companies despite operating globally.

Given the US is one of the largest economies on the planet,  consider that the market capitalization (share price times shares outstanding) of the 500 companies included in the S&P 500 market index is about $19.5 trillion.  That’s a big number and a real lot of money.

The US National Bureau of Economic Research reported that the US Gross Domestic Product – value of all goods and services produced in the US in 2014 was $17.7 Trillion.

Therefore, the price the stock market currently places on all the S&P 500 public companies in the US exceeds by a considerable margin the value of all goods and services produced in the US all of last year. ($19.5 trillion market cap vs $17.7 Trillion GDP)

So the story goes, when the market price of public companies declines – and it does often – this price decline somehow impacts the economy directly creating this notion of fragility and instability.

But consider this, when the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009 occurred, the US economy (and Canada) experienced a 4.3% decline in GDP.  During this recession, even the strongest companies suffered significant declines (however briefly) in their earnings and dividends and in their value of businesses but – note this – the prices of their stocks declined peak to trough a staggering 57%.

So – the equity price declines (57%) were hugely disproportionate to the long term impairment (if any) and the contraction of the economy as a whole (4.3% GDP decline).

I hope you can conclude that an economy producing close to $18 trillion of annual goods and services, with a depth and diversification of businesses selling all manner of goods we will continue to need and want (i.e. toothpaste) with share value of $19.5 trillion (in a rational market) could really be unstable?

Collectively, the economy is made up of a vast number of diversified and rationally managed businesses which will continue providing goods and services the world will demand.  Occasionally the fear and/or greed (which are always present) overcomes and disrupts the market prices of these well managed and valuable companies.  Those that understand these situations are temporary and simply part of the market process but never disrupt the long term value of these businesses will succeed as long term investors.